| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Idaho | 13-10 | 1619.7 | -39.6 | 1580.1 | 80.0% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | San Diego State | 36-13 | 1580.1 | +62.4 | 1642.5 | 56.9% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | North Texas | 10-59 | 1642.5 | -153.6 | 1488.9 | 57.9% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Washington | 24-59 | 1488.9 | -18.3 | 1470.6 | 9.3% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Colorado State | 20-3 | 1470.6 | +47.2 | 1517.8 | 45.6% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Ole Miss | 21-24 | 1516.7 | +79.4 | 1596.1 | 4.3% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Virginia | 20-22 | 1596.1 | +20.9 | 1617.0 | 22.7% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Toledo | 28-7 | 1617.0 | +41.1 | 1658.1 | 40.9% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Oregon State | 7-10 | 1658.1 | -15.8 | 1642.3 | 75.7% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Louisiana Tech | 28-3 | 1627.6 | +35.3 | 1662.9 | 67.3% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | James Madison | 20-24 | 1662.9 | +15.3 | 1678.2 | 25.6% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Oregon State | 32-8 | 1678.2 | +15.2 | 1693.4 | 80.9% |
| 19 | Dec 22 2025 | W | Utah State | 34-21 | 1689.1 | +13.6 | 1702.7 | 63.8% |