| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | L | Washington | 10-24 | 1547.9 | +34.4 | 1582.4 | 22.7% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Kansas State | 7-34 | 1582.4 | -21.1 | 1561.3 | 22.1% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Duquesne | 48-7 | 1561.3 | -8.9 | 1552.4 | 98.8% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Arizona | 24-34 | 1552.4 | -7.0 | 1545.5 | 25.7% |
| 5 | Oct 4 2026 | L | Fresno State | 6-26 | 1545.5 | -17.5 | 1528.0 | 50.5% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Utah State | 16-17 | 1528.0 | +1.4 | 1529.4 | 52.6% |